The Savings - Growth Investment relationship in a century of Argentine history
Keywords:
economic Growth, savings/investment, life cycle hypothesis, postkeynesian theory, Ramsey, granger causalityAbstract
Does savings causes growth as supply side economics holds? Or instead, growth drives savings as keynesian demand side economics states? Both approaches predict a close correlation between savings and growth so, veryfing the empirical relation between these variables does not support any of the approaches. To find out which of these theories is more closely related to reality, we ran a Granger causality tests between saving, investment and growth for the case of Argentina during the 1914-2003 period. We found robust evidence that savings does not Granger cause growht, while on the contrary, growht causes savings. The same result holds when investment is included in the tests, but these results match up closer to the historic characterization of each period. This match brings confidence about these findings, which also agree with recent research and with the causal relation that keynesian demand side economics supports. Estimations were done using different techniques including the new Toda and Yamamoto procedure.References
AGRAWAL, Pradeep (2001). “The relation between savings and growth: cointegration and causality evidence from Asia”. En: Applied Economics, 33, 499-513.
ALGUACIL, Maite, Ana CUADROS y Vicente ORTS (2004). “Does Saving Really Matter for Growth? México (1970-2000)”. En: Journal of International Development, 16, 281-290.
ANDERSSON, Björn (1999). “On the Causality Between Saving and Growth: Long and short Run Dynamics and Country Heterogeneity”. En: Uppsala University, Department of Economics, Working Paper Series nº 1999:18.
ATTANASIO, Horacio P., Lucio PICCI y Antonello SCORCU (2000). “Saving, growth and investment: a macroeconomic analysis using a panel of countries”. En: The Review of Economics and Statistics vol. 82, no. 2, pp. 182-211(30).
CÁRDENAS, Mauricio y Andrés ESCOBAR (1997). “Determinants of savings in Colombia 1925-1994”. En: Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo, Documento de Trabajo R-310 (septiembre).
CARROLL, Christopher D. y David N. WEIL (1994). “Saving and growth: a reinterpretation”. En: Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 40, North-Holland NBER Working Paper Series Nº 4470 (septiembre 1993).
CHANG, Gene Hsin (1999). “Sustaining Rapid Growth in Poland: What is the Primary Concern?”. Disponible en internet: http://ssrn.com/ abstract=87140.
CLAUS, I., D. HAUGH, G. SCOBIE y J. TÖRNQUIST (2001). “Saving and growth in an open economy”. En: Treasury Working Paper New Zealand, 01/32.
DE LA FUENTE, Ángel (1995). “Notas sobre la economía del crecimiento”. En: Papers de Treball, Institut d’Anàlisi Econòmica, UAB, octubre.
DOMAR, Evsey D. (1946). “Capital expansion, rate of growth, and employment”. En: Econométrica, vol.14 (2), 137-147.
EASTERLY, W. (2001). En búsqueda del crecimiento. Barcelona: Editorial Antoni Bosch.
GRANGER, C. W. J. (1969). “Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross spectral methods”. En: Econométrica, vol. 37, 424-438.
HARROD, R. F. (1939). “An essay in dynamic theory”. En: The Economic Journal, vol.49, Nº 193 14-33, marzo.
JAPELLI, Tullio y Marco PAGANO (1998). “The determinants of saving: lessons from Italy”. En: Centro Studi in Economia e Finanza Working Paper, nº1 (marzo).
JUDSON, Ruth A. y Ann L. OWEN (1996). “Estimating Dynamic Panel Data Models: A Practical Guide for Macroeconomists”. En: Federal Reserve Board of Governors (enero).
JOHANSEN, Søren (1991). “Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models”. En: Econométrica, 59, 1551-1580.
KEYNES, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. New York: Editorial Harcourt.
KING, Robert G. y Ross LEVINE (1994). “Capital fundamentalism, economic development, and economic growth”. En: Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 40, 259-292, North-Holland.
KÓNYA, László (2004). “Savings and Growth: Granger Causality Analysis with Bootstrapping on Panels of Countries”. En: La Trobe University Australia. Disponible en internet: http://www.eea-esem.com.
LANTERI, L.N. (2004). “Ahorro y crecimiento: alguna evidencia para la economía argentina, 1970-2003”.
LÜTKEPOHL, Helmut (1993). Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. Segunda Edición. Berlin: Editorial Springer-Verlag.
MADDISON, A. (1992). “A Long-Run Perspective of Saving”. En: Scadinavian Journal of Economics, 94(2), pp.181-196.
MANKIW, Gregory N., David ROMER y David N. WEIL (1990). “A contribution to the empirics of economic growth”. En: NBER Working Paper 3541, diciembre.
MARSHALL, Alfred (1907). Elements of Economics of Industry. Being the First Volume of Elements of Economics. London: Editorial Elibron Replica Classics, Macmillan.
MAVROTAS, George y Roger KELLY (2001). “Old Wine in New Bottles: Testing-Causality Between Savings and Growth”. En: The Manchester Scholl Supplement, 1463-6786, 97-105.
MODIGLIANI, F. (1986). “Life Cycle, Individual Thrift, and the Wealth of Nations”. En: The American Economic Review, vol. 76, nº 3, (junio), 297-313.
OGLIETTI, G.C. (2008). Demanda y crecimiento. Tesis Doctoral. Barcelona: UAB. Disponible en internet: http://www.tesisenxarxa.net/TDX-0523108- 154017/index.html
PANETTIERI, J. (1969). Síntesis histórica del desarrollo industrial argentino. Buenos Aires: Editorial Macchi.
SALTZ, Ira S. (1999). “An Examination of the Causal Relationship Between Savings and Growth in the Third World”. En: Journal of Economics and Finance, vol. 23, Nº 1, (verano) 90-98.
SINHA, Dipendra y Tapen SINHA (1998). “Cart before the horse? The saving-growth nexus in Mexico”. En: Economic Letters 61, 43-47.
SOLOW, Robert M., (1956). “A contribution to the theory of economic growth”. En: The Quarterly Journal of Economics vol. 70 (1), 65-94.
TODA, Hiro Y. y Taki YAMAMOTO (1995). “Statistical inference in vector autoregressions possibly integrated processes”. En: Journal of Econometrics 66, 225-250.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
